Approximately 400 loaded oil tankers are currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf, waiting for a strait that will not open. Major container shipping firms — Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd — suspended Hormuz transits weeks ago and have not returned. War-risk insurance premiums have made transit economically unviable for most commercial operators even when it is physically possible.
The global shipping industry is adapting in real time. Here is what that looks like.
The Alternative Routes
When the Hormuz closes, the world has limited options.
Saudi Arabia and UAE pipelines: The only countries with operational pipelines bypassing the strait are Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline runs from its eastern oil fields to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea — a lifeline for Gulf exports. But capacity is constrained at roughly 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day combined — enough to move a fraction of the 20 million barrels that normally transit Hormuz daily.
Cape of Good Hope: Container ships and some tankers have rerouted around the southern tip of Africa entirely, bypassing the Red Sea as well. This adds two to three weeks to transit times and significantly increases fuel costs — but it avoids both Hormuz and the Houthi-threatened Red Sea corridor. It is the long way around the world, and it is now the default route for a growing share of global shipping.
Ceasefire complications: On April 8, a temporary ceasefire was announced that was supposed to include reopening the strait. By April 9, the strait remained effectively closed, with Iran restricting and conditioning traffic. Shipping operators and insurers have made clear they will not return to Gulf routes without sustained confidence in the ceasefire’s durability. Even when flows resume, experts say normalization will take months — the global tanker fleet is not positioned to immediately reverse course.
The Cost to Your Wallet
These shipping disruptions are not abstract. They translate directly into higher prices for goods and energy.
Gas prices in the United States have risen over $1 per gallon since the war began, with forecasts of $5 per gallon if the strait remains closed into mid-April. Jet fuel has spiked 95 percent, prompting airlines to add baggage fees and raise ticket prices. Amazon, FedEx, and USPS have all implemented fuel surcharges. Fertilizer prices are up over 50 percent as Middle Eastern urea and ammonia — which normally transit Hormuz — have been cut off from global markets.
The EIA warns that even under optimistic assumptions of the strait reopening this spring, prices will remain elevated through late 2026 as producers ramp back up and the tanker fleet repositions.
Why the Panama Canal Matters Now
Trump’s focus on the Panama Canal — mocked by many in the media as a distraction — looks prescient right now. With the Suez Canal facing Houthi threats and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the Panama Canal is carrying more of the burden of global trade than at any time in recent memory.
Alternative routing through Panama is not a perfect substitute for Hormuz — but it is another example of why control of strategic maritime infrastructure is not a rhetorical talking point. It is a national security asset.